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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model Updated To Account for Satoshi’s 1 Million BTC

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
5 years ago
2 mins read
bitcoin crypto btc stock to flow

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Bitcoin’s highly cited Stock-to-Flow model has been updated to account for a large portion of the BTC supply being lost forever, due to the disappearance of the asset’s creator.

Satoshi Nakamoto was said to have over 1 million BTC, which could be forever locked away, altering the total supply of the first-ever cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Receives an Update, Altered To Account for Missing 1 Million BTC

Because Bitcoin is the first of its kind, and its value is primarily based on speculation on what the asset will ultimately become and be worth, analysts struggle to find data that makes sense as part of fundamental analysis.

The most popular model for attempting to determine a fair value of Bitcoin based on the asset’s underlying protocol and features has been the highly cited Stock-to-Flow model, popularized by cryptocurrency analyst Plan B.

Related Reading | Despite Bitcoin Price Surging, Google Search Volume Is Trending Down 

The model pays close attention to Bitcoin’s overall scarcity.

Bitcoin was created by the mysterious cypherpunk Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008, who designed the first-ever cryptocurrency to feature certain attributes such as an ever-reducing stream of supply, a fixed total supply, and many others, giving it a digital scarcity that has never existed prior.

The closest thing to Bitcoin as an asset is gold, due to its scarcity.

But even with gold, no one truly understands what the limit of the supply is, whereas, with Bitcoin, there can only ever be 21 million BTC.

Because there are so few BTC available, any changes to the scarcity are especially notable, especially a sum as large as 1 million BTC.

And because cryptocurrencies are a new technology where assets are hidden and locked behind an encrypted private key, early users of the cryptocurrency have since passed away, misplaced private keys, and more, locking away this “lost” Bitcoin forever.

Even Satoshi Nakamoto him or herself may at this point be deceased, and with their passing, over 1 million BTC would be locked away forever.

Updated version of Bitcoin Stock-to-flow (S2F) chart is now live:https://t.co/4sEUMozAwX

Stock amount now reduced by 1 million to account for Satoshi's unmoved coins.  

Also shows model variance. pic.twitter.com/0mVGVzumXE

— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) January 22, 2020

Because the supply of Bitcoin may actually be a lot closer to 20 million BTC due to this extremely large chunk of the supply being missing, crypto analyst Philip Swift has updated Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow model to account for Satoshi’s BTC stack.

Based on the updated figures, the price of the leading cryptocurrency by market cap is fairly valued at current prices, and potentially even slightly over-valued.

Related Reading | How Bitcoin’s Recent Downtrend Could Have Tripled Your BTC Stack

However, after the upcoming halving in May, Bitcoin should rise steadily in value as the supply is diminished, and demand begins to outweigh supply.

After the halving, according to the model, Bitcoin would be fairly valued at prices of $100,000 or more by the first quarter of 2021.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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