As the Bitcoin (BTC) Halving event concluded for the fourth time, the cryptocurrency market witnessed notable changes in key metrics.
These developments have led Charles Edwards, a market expert and founder of Capriole Invest, to issue bold predictions that hint at a paradigm shift in the BTC market.
Bitcoin Trading At ‘Deep Discount’
One of the key metrics highlighted by Edwards is the staggering electrical cost associated with mining a single Bitcoin. Edwards reveals that this cost has now reached an astonishing $77,4000. This figure represents the raw electricity expenses required to power the Bitcoin network for every newly mined BTC.
Another significant metric that Edwards draws attention to is the Bitcoin Miner Price, which soared to $244,000 on Saturday. This metric encompasses the block reward and fees miners receive for every Bitcoin they successfully mine.
Notably, this surge in miner price coincided with transaction fees skyrocketing to $230, marking a four-fold increase compared to the previous all-time high of $68 set in 2021.
Considering the metrics above, Edwards suggests that BTC currently trades at a “deep discount.” This is because BTC’s price is lower than the electrical costs of mining it.
Typically, this situation only lasts for a few days every four years, suggesting that the price will only take a short time to catch up and surpass this price level, which is slightly below BTC’s all-time high (ATH) of $73,7000, reached on March 14th.
Edwards outlines three possible outcomes in the wake of these developments. First, he anticipates a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin experiences a significant surge.
Secondly, there is a likelihood that approximately 15% of miners may be forced to shut down due to unfavorable economics. Finally, Edwards suggests that average transaction fees are expected to remain substantially higher.
Based on the analysis of these metrics and the potential scenarios, Edwards boldly predicts that Bitcoin’s days under the $100,000 mark are “numbered.” While it remains to be seen which of the three outcomes will prevail, Edwards expects a combination of all three factors to contribute to Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
Optimal Buying Opportunity?
Bitcoin has demonstrated significant price consolidation above the $60,000 mark since Friday, following temporary drops below this threshold amid mounting anticipation for the Halving event.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently analyzed Bitcoin’s current price state, suggesting that a potential bottom may have formed above these levels, increasing the likelihood of surpassing upper resistance levels shortly.
According to Ali Martinez’s analysis, Bitcoin strives to establish the $66,000 price level as a crucial support zone. Data reveals that approximately 1.54 million addresses collectively purchased 747,000 BTC at this level. If Bitcoin successfully secures this support, it may pave the way for further upward movement.
Martinez identifies Bitcoin’s next critical resistance levels, between $69,900 and $71,200. These levels represent significant price barriers for BTC bulls, and Bitcoin may encounter selling pressure at these levels.
In addition, the analyst points out that the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, a metric that compares the market value of Bitcoin to its realized value, has shown a promising pattern, as seen in the chart below.
Martinez highlights that whenever the MVRV ratio falls below its 90-day average since November 2022, it historically indicates an optimal buying opportunity for Bitcoin. Interestingly, such buying opportunities have resulted in average gains of approximately 67%.
According to Martinez, based on current market conditions and an analysis of the MVRV ratio, now may be an opportune time to consider buying Bitcoin. The historical data and the potential for significant price appreciation support this view.
BTC is trading at $66,100, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com