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Breaking News: Celsius Founder Alex Mashinsky Receives 12-Year Prison Sentence

Does the Crypto Market Have The Strength To Break To The Upside? QCP Capital Weighs In

Ronaldo Marquez
Ronaldo Marquez
2 years ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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The conditions of the cryptocurrency market have changed drastically; according to an analysis by QCP Capital, the options market in its current state makes the crypto industry look like a major crisis, such as the shutdown of crypto exchange FTX after filing for bankruptcy, never happened.

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Trading desk QCP Capital published observations on the crypto industry, revealing some key points to consider for the coming months.

The Crypto Market Comes Back To Life

QCP’s analysis points out that Bitcoin (BTC) risk reversals have been trading in positive territory over the past week, which tells us that calls (buys) have been more expensive than puts (sells) since 2021 across multiple tenors.

This is unusual for the sector as BTC typically has a persistent put skew, mainly due to miner/treasury hedging activity. The chart below depicts this market behavior and the bullish sentiment impacting the options sector.

Source: QCP Capital

Put skew drives the price of puts higher and calls lower. This difference in pricing between options is called skew and, under normal circumstances, puts trade with higher volatility than calls precisely because investors are hedging some of their bullish positions.

For the trading desk, this means that the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has shifted from bearish to bullish, a culmination of what has been happening in the macro market and the slight recovery in the economy.

Bulls Might Get Their Hearts Broken On Valentines Day

Ethereum’s (ETH) implied volatility (IV), which represents the expected volatility of a stock or currency over the option’s life, has fallen, indicating complacency as the market prices out fears of a price collapse, according to the analysis.

Crypto
Source: QCP Capital

The enthusiasm in the market can be measured by the amount of “fear of missing out” (FOMO) that has set in, with many chasing prices and the top by buying high delta calls and going long in the spot market over the past week.

With the upcoming “Big Bad” Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the trading desk expects the market to be more cautious and conservative.

According to QCP, the following potentially problematic date will be February 14th, when the following CPI report will occur, which can potentially “break the heart of the bulls.”

For QCP, this is the same scenario the market experienced in December. Similarly, the price may experience a topside breakout characterized by a highly sharp and violent movement.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $23,200 and seems to be paving the way for the conquest of new levels. It has gained 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 10.3% in the last seven days. Bitcoin is trying to break the next obstacle represented by the $24,400 level.

Crypto BTC BTCUSDT ETH ETHUSDT
BTC’s price with some profits on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview

Ethereum is trading at $1600, up 0.3% in the last 24 hours, with sideways price action. The next resistance wall is at $1,691, a zone the bulls have not visited since September 2022. Ethereum has gained 3.8% in the last seven days.

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Crypto ETH ETHUSDT Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT
ETH’s price moving sideways, with some profits on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSDT Tradingview

Cover image from Unsplash, charts from Tradingview.

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Ronaldo Marquez
Ronaldo Marquez

Ronaldo Marquez

Ronaldo is an experienced crypto enthusiast dedicated to the nascent and ever-evolving industry. With over five years of extensive research and unwavering dedication, he has cultivated a profound interest in the world of cryptocurrencies.

Read more

Ronaldo's journey began with a spark of curiosity, which soon transformed into a deep passion for understanding the intricacies of this groundbreaking technology.

Driven by an insatiable thirst for knowledge, Ronaldo has delved into the depths of the crypto space, exploring its various facets, from blockchain fundamentals to market trends and investment strategies. His tireless exploration and commitment to staying up-to-date with the latest developments have granted him a unique perspective on the industry.

One of Ronaldo's defining areas of expertise lies in technical analysis. He firmly believes that studying charts and deciphering price movements provides valuable insights into the market. Ronaldo recognizes that patterns exist within the chaos of crypto charts, and by utilizing technical analysis tools and indicators, he can unlock hidden opportunities and make informed investment decisions. His dedication to mastering this analytical approach has allowed him to navigate the volatile crypto market with confidence and precision.

Ronaldo's commitment to his craft goes beyond personal gain. He is passionate about sharing his knowledge and insights with others, empowering them to make well-informed decisions in the crypto space. Ronaldo's writing is a testament to his dedication, providing readers with meaningful analysis and up-to-date news. He strives to offer a comprehensive understanding of the crypto industry, helping readers navigate its complexities and seize opportunities.

Outside of the crypto realm, Ronaldo enjoys indulging in other passions. As an avid sports fan, he finds joy in watching exhilarating sporting events, witnessing the triumphs and challenges of athletes pushing their limits. Furthermore, His passion for languages extends beyond mere communication; he aspires to master German, French, Italian, and Portuguese, in addition to his native Spanish. Recognizing the value of linguistic proficiency, Ronaldo aims to enhance his work prospects, personal relationships, and overall growth.

However, Ronaldo's aspirations extend far beyond language acquisition. He believes that the future of the crypto industry holds immense potential as a groundbreaking force in history. With unwavering conviction, he envisions a world where cryptocurrencies unlock financial freedom for all and become catalysts for societal development and growth. Ronaldo is determined to prepare himself for this transformative era, ensuring he is well-equipped to navigate the crypto landscape.

Ronaldo also recognizes the importance of maintaining a healthy body and mind, regularly hitting the gym to stay physically fit. He immerses himself in books and podcasts that inspire him to become the best version of himself, constantly seeking new ways to expand his horizons and knowledge.

With a genuine desire to become the best version of himself, Ronaldo is committed to continuous improvement. He sets personal goals, embraces challenges, and seeks opportunities for growth and self-reflection. Ultimately, combining his passion for cryptocurrencies, dedication to learning, and commitment to personal development, Ronaldo aims to go hand-in-hand with the exciting new era that the emerging crypto technology is bringing to the world and societies.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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