In June, Bitcoin (BTC) had hit its stride once again, seeing +5% days on top of +5% days.
At the time, many traders thought this sort of price action would continue. And could you blame them?
After 2018’s brutal bear market collapse, traders were thirsty to see green in their portfolios, even craving said green like a drug. So funnily enough, the strong move higher in the Bitcoin price observed from April to June was exactly what they needed.
However, this ended late that month when the cryptocurrency topped out at $14,000 and proceeded to collapse. Since then, Bitcoin has entered a drawn-out lull, with there being a clearly tightening trade range that has resulted in Bitcoin’s realized volatility falling into a range that precedes gargantuan moves.
Bitcoin realized volatility back at year lows – moved on average 1.2% over the last ten days pic.twitter.com/3tFqBsbHNB
— skew (@skewdotcom) September 19, 2019
Not only is volatility decreasing but so are volumes. Skew pointed out that CME’s Bitcoin futures saw their lowest volumes in four months, implying indirection in this market.
CME this week – lowest volumes in 4 months pic.twitter.com/wgtfJqCbhC
— skew (@skewdotcom) September 19, 2019
This declining volume in the CME Bitcoin futures market has been echoed over in the spot market.
According to CoinMarketCap, cryptocurrency exchanges in aggregate have processed $51 billion worth of trades over the past 24 hours, which is a far cry from the $120+ billion seen during late-June and early-July of this very year. Sure, the data site is known not to be 100% accurate, but the decline in registered crypto volume accentuates the consolidatory period that Bitcoin is in.
Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Bull Market Could Take Years, So How Long To Next Peak?
A big move is clearly coming, by simply logic of market consolidation. But in which direction will Bitcoin head next?
Bitcoin Price to Resolve Higher, Analysts Say
Analysts are currently leaning for an upward breakout due to a number of factors.
Analyst Crypto Welson noted that Bitcoin is currently testing the bottom band of a long-term channel on BTC’s logarithmic chart that stretches back at least three years. In 2016/2017’s macro bull trend, BTC bounced off the lower band of this channel on multiple occasions, never breaking under it. The cryptocurrency is likely to bounce if historical price action is of any current relevance.
https://twitter.com/CryptoWelson/status/1175541659406409728
Also, Crypto Hamster has noted that per his analysis of Bitcoin’s one-day Stochastic RSI, the leading cryptocurrency is poised to enter a phase where it will likely see limited price appreciation.
$BTC, 1D, Stochastic RSI.
Blue – major pump and dump.
Green – temporal recovery.
Pink – second dump.
See the Stochastic RSI confluence.
At least a temporal rise could be expected soon.
And the next blue period could lead to a new high above 14k.#bitcoin $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/ji6wUHLbWA— CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) September 22, 2019
Technicals aren’t the only thing implying that Bitcoin will resolve higher.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, consumer traders themselves believe that the BTC price has a higher chance of heading higher than lower. In a poll conducted by prominent analyst Josh Rager, which surveyed some 5,000 Crypto Twitter users, a majority believe that Bitcoin’s descending triangle consolidation pattern will end with BTC entering another uptrend.
Related Reading: On-Chain Metrics May Point to Underlying Bullishness for Bitcoin
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