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The Hash Ribbon indicator—an on-chain metric designed to identify periods of miner capitulation and subsequent recovery—has just issued a bullish signal for Bitcoin. Several well-known figures within the BTC community highlighted the event through posts on X , suggesting that the signal could mark a turning point in the market.
The Ultimate Bitcoin Buy Signal?
First introduced by on-chain analyst Charles Edwards, the Hash Ribbon relies on two moving averages (commonly the 30-day and 60-day averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate) to determine when mining difficulty and hash power may have capitulated and begun to recover. Traditionally, a “buy” signal is triggered once the 30-day MA crosses decisively above the 60-day MA, indicating that any period of miner-driven distress may be over.
According to historical data, major buy signals have frequently appeared after sharp market downturns, sometimes coinciding with cycle bottoms. Although the indicator is not infallible, it has correctly identified several previous lows in Bitcoin’s history—most notably in 2011–2012, during the depths of the 2014–2015 bear market, around the $3k bottom of late 2018–early 2019, and near the $29k region in mid-2021.
Shortly after the latest crossover was triggered, popular commentator Bitcoin Archive posted: “BITCOIN HASH-RIBBON FLASHES BUY SIGNAL – This is one of the most reliable ‘buy’ indicators. Significant price gains have followed 7 out of the last 7 times this indicator was triggered.”
Edwards, the creator of the Hash Ribbon, retweeted this post, a move that many interpreted as an endorsement of the analysis. Adding to the discussion, a user noted: “Signal flashed only 20 times in Bitcoin’s history. 17/20 times the most recent local low was never violated on a closing basis. We can sweep the lows, or even wick below, but 85% of the time the low’s in and it’s up only from here.”
Meanwhile, Jamie Coutts, chief analyst at Real Vision, stressed the importance of monitoring multiple on-chain metrics, even as the Hash Ribbon flashes bullish: “The widely watched Bitcoin Hash Ribbon signal just fired. While on-chain activity remains sluggish, the metrics with the strongest historical correlation to future price performance are flashing green.”
Notably, many on-chain signals haven’t reached the levels of previous cycles even when the Bitcoin price hit almost $110,000 in mid-January. Also traditional technical signals haven’t reached peaks of the past.
Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Head of Research at NewsBTC, has recently shifted from a bullish to a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Severino, who is also the founder of CoinChartist.io, argues that Bitcoin’s price action and on-chain metrics no longer support the bullish narratives common in past cycles.
“The idea that Bitcoin HAS to reach past extremes on indicators is a dangerous way of thinking. Higher highs in price and lower highs on an oscillator is a bearish signal,” Severino stated recently.
Severino warns against expecting Bitcoin to replicate its historical pattern of pushing certain momentum indicators (e.g., RSI or MACD) to extreme levels. Instead, he notes that divergences—where price climbs to new highs but technical indicators fail to confirm those highs—can signal market exhaustion. “The tools I use are bearish, period,” he remarked via X.
At press time, BTC traded at $87,373.
