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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

JPMorgan Says S&P 500 Can Soar Over 10% Today – Will Bitcoin Follow?

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
2 years ago
2 mins read
JP Morgan prediction Bitcoin

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Today and tomorrow are probably the most important days of the year for the Bitcoin and crypto market. Today’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will possibly be the key for the coming weeks and months.

At 8:30 ET, the CPI for November will be released. Tomorrow, Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision for December.

Following that, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will address the press at 2:30 p.m. and provide the rationale for the decision and the updated forecast for inflation and interest rates (dot plot).

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If CPI comes in better than expected today, there will likely be a rally for risk assets like Bitcoin. If the CPI falls short of expectations or even rises, it could mean a rude awakening for BTC investors – at least this seems to be the market consensus.

Expectations for today’s CPI are 0.4% lower than the previous month, when it came in at 7.7%. As a result, the projected CPI is at 7.3%.

JPMorgan Draws Possible Scenarios

Meanwhile, banking giant JPMorgan published an analysis that CPI inflation below 6.9% could trigger a massive rally in traditional trading markets.

Given Bitcoin’s correlation with USD markets and the S&P 500 in particular, this could likely have a beneficial impact on the BCT price. In total, JPMorgan has mentioned six possible scenarios.

The most likely and expected outcome with a 50% chance is a Y/Y CPI between 7.2% and 7.4%. This would lead to a modest rally in the traditional markets, according to JPMorgan, and would likely have a positive impact on the Bitcoin and crypto markets.

However, as the market heavily hinges on expectations, it remains to be seen whether the majority of market participants have not already priced this in.

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Upcoming FOMC Meeting Is The Most Important Ever For Bitcoin – Watch Out For The Dot Plot

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As the second most likely scenario with a probability of 25%, JPMorgan considers a CPI between 7.5% and 7.7%, which would mean only a slight drop or stagnation of inflation.

According to the banking giant, this would cause the S&P 500 to plummet massively, by 2.5% to 3.5%.

The Bullish Scenarios For Bitcoin

Furthermore, JPMorgan assigns a 15% probability to the bullish scenario of CPI landing at 7.0% to 7.2%, which could mean a 4% to 5% rally for the S&P 500.

JP MORGAN HAS SHARED 6 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS HERE ARE ALL OF THEM.

THE MOST LIKELY AND EXPECTED OUTCOME IS Y/Y CPI COMING IN BETWEEN 7.2% AND 7.4% pic.twitter.com/speetTM55h

— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) December 12, 2022

The banking giant gives the most bullish scenario, a CPI of 6.9% or below, only a 5% chance. But then the S&P 500 could see a legendary rally of 8% to 10%. As Bitcoin is the higher beta, this could mean double-digit gains for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin BTC USD 2022-12-13
Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

At press time, BTC investors seemingly remained on the sideline, awaiting the CPI announcement. BTC stood at $17,168.

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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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