First In History: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Records Lower Value Than Last Cycle’s Low

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple has recently sunk to a lower value than the bottom of the previous cycle. This is the first time in the history of the metric that such a trend has formed.

Current Bitcoin Cycle’s Mayer Multiple Low Is Deeper Than Last Cycle’s

As per data released from the analytics firm Glassnode, the current value of the BTC Mayer Multiple is around 0.478.

Before seeing what the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple does, it’s best to look at a basic explanation of a “moving average” first.

A moving average (or MA in short) is an analytical tool that averages out the value of any quantity over a specific period of time.

As its name implies, it moves forward along with the quantity, and changes its value accordingly. An MA can be taken over any timespan, whether that be 100 days, 72 hours, or even10 seconds.

Related Reading | Why Pain May Not Be Over For Bitcoin Holders Just Yet

The bigger MAs are usually quite useful for long-term analysis as they smooth out any irrelevant short-term fluctuations.

One popular moving average for Bitcoin is the 200-day MA, which has historically indicated a bear market whenever the price has went below it, and a bull market whenever the price has crossed over it.

Now, what the Mayer Multiple does is measure how much the price of the crypto has deviated from this 200-day MA.

The below chart shows the trend in the metric over the course of the history of Bitcoin:

The value of the metric seems to have been below 0.5 in recent weeks | Source: Glassnode

In the graph, the blue line is for the Bitcoin 200-day MA and the green curve represents the points where the Mayer Multiple would have a value of 0.5.

As is apparent from the chart, the price of the crypto has sunk below this 0.5 Mayer Multiple line only a few times in the past.

In fact, out of the total 4163 trading days for the cryptocurrency so far, only 87 have been spent below the green line, which comes out to be about only 2%.

A pattern that the Mayer Multiple followed before this cycle was that all successive cycles observed higher bottoms than the low of the previous one.

In the cycle so far, the metric has already dipped to 0.478, which is less than last cycle’s bottom of about 0.511. This is a first occurrence in the history of Bitcoin.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.2k, up 3% in the past week.

Looks like the value of the crypto has moved sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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