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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Expectations Of Aggressive FED Drop, Here’s Why Bitcoin Could Rise To $50K

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
bitcoin bull run

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Bitcoin stumbles as it approaches the mid area around its current levels. As reported yesterday, there was a large number of asks orders at $45,000, and $48,000, which could continue to operate as resistance in the short term.

Related Reading | TA: Why Ethereum Could Rally Further Above $3K

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $43,748 with a 2.1% loss in the last 24-hours and a 14.1% profit in the past 7 days.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC with moderate gains on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

Market participants seem to be wondering if the price of Bitcoin will be able to sustain its current momentum. At the moment, the benchmark crypto displays some weakness and trends lower during the day.

Data from Material Indicators suggest potential support for Bitcoin’s price around $43,500. As seen below, there are around $5 million in bid orders at those levels, with $7 million in additional bids orders lower at $41,600, in case of further price action.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC’s price (blue line on the chart) with considerable resistance to the upside (red and yellow lines above price). Source: Material Indicators

$45,000 remains major short-term resistance, as mentioned, with over $20 million in asks orders from $44,800 to that level. Even if the price of Bitcoin can break above those levels, there is an extra stack of asks orders at $46,000.

The market could be reacting to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, but more importantly for BTC’s price trajectory, it is the impact of this conflict on a potential interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED). Per Yahoo Finance, FED Chair Jerome Powell said on a potential monetary shift:

(the FED) remained on track to raise interest rates later this month as the economy remained firm despite ongoing political tensions.

The Market Speaks, How Bitcoin Could React

According to a pseudonym crypto analyst, expectations of a hike in interest rates have turned positive. Thus, why BTC’s price could be experiencing a relief bounce. Based on the target rate probabilities of an increase for rates, the market favors a 25-bps hike.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: tedtalksmacro via Twitter

The analyst believes this could translate into a slow upward trend for Bitcoin:

Mr. Market is saying no to a 50bps rate hike in March and yes to a 25bps hike – that means that the risks headed into this month’s Fed meeting are (imo): A) No hike = #BTC to $50k+, B) 50bps hike = Bitcoin to mid 30k, C) 25bps hike = Bitcoin continues to slowly trend higher.

As NewsBTC has been reporting, there are seemingly two scenarios for Bitcoin and the crypto market going into a possible interest rates hike. In the first scenario, the FED announces an aggressive change to its monetary policy. Director of Global Macro for Fidelity Justin Timmer said on this possibility:

The ongoing inflation news will force the Fed to tighten so many times that it eventually “breaks” something, which will in turn force it to pivot much like it did in 2018 after a 20% sell-off in equities.

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Consolidates Below $45K, What Could Trigger A Correction

The second scenario will be more bullish for Bitcoin, and it seems more likely according to the data presented above. In this scenario, the FED takes a more passive stance and allows the market to “tighten” on its own by raising rates with an initial 25 bps this month, topping at 2% in 2023.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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