The Bitcoin price has experienced a notable increase of over 4% in the last 12 hours, marking a departure from the recent lull. This movement follows a bull pennant breakout, with the price of Bitcoin now aiming for the $55,000 mark.
The 4-hour (BTC/USD) chart below shows Bitcoin trading at $44,609, having just breached the confines of a bullish pennant pattern—a bullish continuation signal frequently followed by an upward price trajectory.
What This Means For Bitcoin Price
The pennant, which is characterized by converging trend lines following a substantial price move, signifies a pause in trading before the market resumes its prior uptrend. The breakout from the pennant suggests a continuation of the bullish trend with a potential target that is often extrapolated from the length of the prior move, known as the flagpole, which initiated the pennant formation.
Looking at the moving averages, Bitcoin has displayed a golden cross pattern, with the 20-period EMA (currently at $43,389) ascending above the 50-period EMA (currently at $43,049) and the 100-period EMA (currently at $42,727). This cross underpins the bullish sentiment in the market.
Volume, a key indicator of the strength behind price movements, has also shown an uptick as the breakout occurred, further validating the bullish scenario.
The Fibonacci retracement tool, applied from the swing high at $49,092 to the swing low at $38,484, shows Bitcoin’s price breaking above the 0.5 ($43,788) retracement level. The next critical levels to watch are the 0.618 ($45,040) and the 0.786 ($46,822) Fibonacci levels, which may serve as resistances in the short term.
Beyond that, the full 1.0 extension ($49,092) is on the horizon, with the 1.618 extension ($55,648) aligning closely with the target of $55,000, reinforcing its significance as a potential price objective.
The RSI, at 73.47, indicates strong buying pressure but also suggests caution as the market approaches overbought conditions. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin price in its strongest moments tends to reach very high levels, exhibiting the massive momentum. Therefore, it is essential for traders to watch for any potential divergence that may signal a weakening of the current momentum.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s break above the bullish pennant pattern has set the stage for a possible rally towards the $55,000 mark. The intersection of the golden cross, increased volume, and the Fibonacci extension levels adds credence to the bullish outlook.
However, traders should remain vigilant of the overbought conditions that could prompt a retest of key support levels. The most crucial support is found at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($43,788), with further support levels at 0.382 ($42,536) and 0.236 ($40,988). A sustained move below these levels could challenge the bullish thesis and shift focus to the next significant support at $38,484.