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This Is How The Bitcoin Price Will Be Affected By Macro: Charles Edwards

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
2 years ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin BTC

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In a new interview, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments shared his Bitcoin theses for 2023. Looking back at the past few months, the renowned expert said those have put the market in a position where Bitcoin offers “a great position for long-term investors.”

As Edwards noted, almost every sentiment metric imaginable fell into the “biggest or second-biggest bearish” range in macro, equities, and crypto. “Pretty much anyone would have said on Twitter last year that we are in a recession or it’s coming to a recession,” the analyst continued.

While Edwards acknowledged that the risk of a recession is far from gone, many key metrics have come back quite a bit. Among them is the housing market, which is slowing and often leads the overall economy.

“So there are a number of metrics which suggest things are slowing down a bit. You got all the big tech names laying off employees and you see this in crypto as well. 10% to 20% cuts have not been unusual in the last months,” the founder of Capriole Investments asserted.

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Furthermore, he pointed out an interesting fact: every time inflation peaked above 5% and then fell by more than 20%, the U.S. central bank pivoted. This observation holds true for the last 60 years. “So I think there is a high probability the Fed stops raising rates or reducing rates,” Edwards concluded and further said:

And then we have this deep value situation in crypto which has been playing out the last 3 or 4 months. […] And all that sets up a great opportunity for long-term investors in crypto and equities, as well, risk assets in general.

Fed Pivot Will Propel Bitcoin Upwards Within 6 Months

In general, it is difficult to predict when there will be a regime change at the Fed. However, Edwards believes it will happen within the next 3-6 months. After the forced liquidations in the Bitcoin market over the past 12 months, there is currently no longer any significant selling pressure.

Therefore, according to the Capriole Investments founder, there will be a liquidity crisis on the sell side once larger amounts of Bitcoin buyers return to the market, leading to a squeeze to the upside. “And we saw that kind of short-squeeze play out in the first weeks of January.”

As for the Fed pivot, investors should keep an eye on specific data. While the consensus now seems to be that the Fed will change monetary policy, there are still some risks. Edwards pointed to history in this regard, warning that inflation could rise again.

In the 1970s inflation went through a roller coaster ride and that could be the case for the next 5 to 10 years as well. But I do think the base case for me is at least a rate pause this year, at some point in the coming months.

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Moreover, investors should be cautious when employment remains very high. This is “probably the single most important factor leading to recessions.” While this data point is still incredibly strong currently, it could change “any month now” given the layoffs in the big tech sector, according to Edwards.

Equities are also worth considering, he said. If they hit new highs, or if earnings are very strong, if manufacturing picks up and inflation is still at 5% to 6%, then the Fed might think it can keep going because everything is still fine. However, Edwards’s base case looks different:

I think 2023 will generally be a positive year because the Bitcoin price will probably be higher at the end of the year […], but there will be a lot of volatility.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $23.115.

Bitcoin price BTC USD
Bitcoin price above $23,000, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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