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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin On-Chain Data Shows Weak Baseline For 2023: Report

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
2 years ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin BTC

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Even though Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market are experiencing an upswing in the first days of the new year, on-chain data shows that the market remains in a deep slumber. As Glassnode explains in its latest report, the BTC price has shown historically low volatility over the past weeks.

And according to the on-chain data for Bitcoin, there is currently little reason to believe that the boredom in the market will change quickly. However, if a move does occur, it will likely be an explosive market move, as in previous cycles when volatility was extremely low.

To support this thesis, Glassnode cites Bitcoin’s realized volatility over the last month, which is at a multi-year low of 24.6%. As the chart below shows, there have been a few times in Bitcoin’s history when it has been this low. In most cases, BTC saw a rally after the market awakened; only in one case, in November 2018, did the price fall dramatically (-50%) lower.

Bitcoin 1-month realized volatility
Bitcoin 1-month realized volatility, Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin Network Usage Is Low

Also, the weak baseline for Bitcoin is identified by Glassnode in continued restrained network usage. While on-chain activity increased after the FTX collapse, the uptick briefly leveled off later. The monthly average of new Bitcoin addresses is approaching the annual average again.

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The overall transaction value of the network is in free fall. While the daily transfer volume was still around $40 billion in the third quarter of 2022, it is currently only $5.8 billion/day. The value is thus back at the level before the bull year 2020.

According to Glassnode, this indicates a displacement of institutional capital. This is reflected in the fact that the share of transfers of more than $10 million has fallen from 42.8% before the collapse of FTX to only 19.0%. Glassnode states:

This suggests a significant lull in institutional sized capital flows, and perhaps a serious shaking of confidence occurring among this cohort. It may also reflect, in part, and sadly, an expulsion of the questionable capital flows associated with the FTX/Alameda entities.

One indicator of a breakout from boredom could be the inflows and outflows on exchanges. But again, Glassnode notes that the on-chain data does not yet signal any momentum for an explosive move. Bitcoin inflows are currently between $350 million and $400 million per day, a far cry from the billions seen in 2021-22, according to Glassnode.

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Major Indicator Remains Bearish

According to the research firm, the Realized Cap is one of the most important metrics in on-chain analysis. Unfortunately, the metric currently gives BTC investors just as little hope for a change anytime soon. The Bitcoin Realized Cap has declined 18.8% since the all-time high, representing a net capital outflow of -$88.4 billion from the network.

“This makes for the second largest relative decline in history, and the largest in terms of USD realized losses,” Glassnode notes, pointing at the following chart. Only in 2011/2012, the bear market drawdown was worse by 24%.

Bitcoin Realized Cap
Bitcoin Realized Cap, Source: Glassnode

Concluding the report, Glassnode says:

[I]t is rare for such conditions to stick around for long. Past occasions where BTC and ETH volatility was this low have preceded extremely volatile market environments, with past examples trading both higher and lower.

At press time, the BTC was slowly grinding higher in the 1-day chart. The price stood at $17,268.

BTC USD
Bitcoin grinding higher, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from Jievani Weerasinghe / Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com 

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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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