Bitcoin Monthly Cyclicality Paints Grim Picture For Last Week Of February

Best Owie

1 year ago

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

For the past year, bitcoin has shown a cyclicality that has been on a semi-regular basis. For most of last year, most months had finished in the positive with green candles dominating the market. However, while most of the months have been positive, there have been significant differences between the first half of the month and the second half. This push and pull pattern has continued into the new year, spelling some bad news for the end of February.

Looking At Monthly Cyclicality Through 2021

Eight months out of the last 14 months have been recording positive returns mid-month. Across these eight months, the returns have not carried on to the end of the month for five months, leaving only three months that saw positive mid-month to end-month returns. Most of bitcoin’s gains have been recorded occurring in the first half of the month, while the second half usually suffered losses.

These periods of gains and losses usually coincide with the CME future expires which usually occur mid-month. And from mid-month to the next expiry date, the pattern usually plays out as illustrated in the chart below.

BTC monthly cyclicality shows interesting pattern | Source: Arcane Research

Following this pattern for the past year would put a trader in significant profit over the past year. That is if they purchased the digital assets when the CME futures were expiring and subsequently sold the next mid-month. The reverse would put a trader in over 50% loss from their initial investment, indicating that timing the CME futures expiry and following bitcoin’s cyclicality could be a favorable strategy.

February End Not Looking Good For Bitcoin

Given that this cyclicality has carried on into 2022, then the last week of February may see the digital asset end on a low note. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are already being rocked by social and political issues, most recently, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. These have seen the digital asset plummet towards $35,000, giving bears a complete hold of the market.

BTC recovers above $35K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

For the first half of February, bitcoin had recorded 17% growth. But from mid-month to the end of the month, it has turned down, with over 12% losses already being recorded. If this pattern continues, then bitcoin is looking at another week of losses before ushering in the month of March. This would mean that the digital asset could see significant growth from the beginning of March till mid-month.

It is still unclear what is leading to this cyclicality. However, the CME future expiry has presented one of the strongest arguments for it. Arcane Research notes that the digital asset is known to revert to its monthly VWAP price which coincides with the max pain price of month options. Although it is still unclear if this is the reason behind this cyclicality.

Featured image from USA Today, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com

Best Owie

Best Owie is a seasoned managing editor with a wealth of experience currently serving as the Managing Editor at NewsBTC. Best is a highly skilled professional with a track record of producing engaging and informative content. With a keen eye for detail and a passion for accuracy, Best is committed to ensuring that each article published meets the highest standards of quality.

Best has over six years of experience in the crypto industry and has overseen the creation and publishing of thousands of articles over the years. Best is always abreast of everything that is going on in the crypto industry in order to create and curate the most relevant content for readers. This shines through in Best’s publications, which are always clear and concise, enabling easy reading and understanding for all.

Best is also an avid learner and advocate for new technology. This has seen Best dive into topics in areas such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Layer 2 blockchains, etc. In addition to this, Best is a vocal member of the crypto community across various social media platforms such as X and Reddit. Best’s work garners tens of thousands of readers monthly, who rely on the information in these publications to keep up-to-date with everything happening in the crypto community.

Best’s articles explore breaking news, intricate systems such as yield farming, liquidity pools, and other decentralized finance (DeFi) systems. This is because Best understands the importance of information to gaining financial freedom and believes that everyone should have access to this information.

Best also believes in leveraging the blockchain for philanthropy to create the most positive social impact. This involves work with charitable organizations focused on financial literacy and education. With each article, Best lends a voice to important issues such as a more financially inclusive future, transparent systems for growth and development, and technology that is not self-serving but one that serves all of humanity.

When not curating engaging content, Best can be found reading a book with a cup of hot chocolate, enjoying a Netflix series, or exploring the outdoors with Green - the world’s most quiet and well-behaved Husky. Best’s interests also span other industries such as art, finance, and security, attending seminars and conferences in not just the crypto industry but other industries as well.

As an animal lover, Best is also involved with charities for animals, local shelters, and rescues. Best is also involved in local events that promote inclusivity, such as being a prominent member of hiking clubs and a cycling club, as well as being a part of a very happy group of animal lovers.

Best is a true professional in every sense of the word, with an exceptional dedication to producing high-quality work. This shines through in Best's work on and off the clock. These include advocating for inclusive crypto education for all, the impact of financial illiteracy, and the benefits of adopting new technologies such as cryptocurrencies. Best’s prolific career in the media industry is a testament of how hard work and dedication pays.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.