Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Now Own Nearly 80% Of Realized Cap

Keshav Verma

2 years ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows the part of the Bitcoin realized cap held by the long-term holders has increased and is now at nearly 80%.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Own Almost 80% Of Realized Cap

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the crypto has historically tended to form bottoms around when the long-term holder share of realized cap has exceeded 80%.

The “long-term holders” (LTHs) are all those Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins without selling or moving since at least 155 days ago.

The realized cap is a way of assessing the capitalization of the crypto where each circulating coin’s value is taken as the price it was last moved or sold at, rather than the current BTC price.

Now, the relevant on-chain indicator here is the “realized cap – UTXO age bands (%),” which tells us what part are the various groups in the Bitcoin market contributing to the total realized cap of the coin.

The various age bands denote the amount of time investors belonging to a group have been holding their coins for.

As mentioned earlier, LTHs include all cohorts holding since at least 155 days ago. Here is a chart that shows how the contribution to the realized cap by these investors have changed over the history of Bitcoin:

Looks like the value of the metric has observed rise recently | Source: CryptoQuant

In the above graph, the quant has marked all the relevant points of trend related to the Bitcoin realized cap percentage of the LTHs.

It seems like whenever the indicator’s value has crossed the 80% mark, a bottom in the price of the crypto has taken place.

Currently, the metric’s value has been rising up in recent weeks, however, it has still not gone above the threshold just yet.

Nonetheless, the indicator is nearly there. If its value continues to rise and the historical pattern holds this time as well, then Bitcoin may observe a bottom soon.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21k, down 30% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 30% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

The value of the crypto seems to have been moving sideways over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Since the crash a few days ago, Bitcoin has been mostly consolidating around the $21k mark. Currently, it’s unclear whether the decline is over, or if more is coming.

If the LTH share of the realized cap is anything to go by, then BTC may first seen a bit more decline before the bottom is finally in.

Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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