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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Falls Under $100,000: Elliott Wave Analysis Forecasts Decline To $70,000
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Falls Under $100,000: Elliott Wave Analysis Forecasts Decline To $70,000

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Capitulation Approaching Bottom Zone, But Not Quite There Yet

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:21 pm
3 mins read

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On-chain data shows Bitcoin long-term holder capitulation has deepened recently, but has not entered into the historical bottom zone yet.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR Continues To Observe Deep Values Below ‘1’

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC long-term holders have been realizing losses in recent weeks.

The “spent output profit ratio” (or SOPR in short) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are currently selling at a profit or at a loss.

The metric works by checking the on-chain history of each coin being sold to see what price it was last moved at. If this last selling value of any coin was less than the current BTC price, then that coin has now been sold at a profit.

Related Reading | Can This Bitcoin Ratio Have Hints For A Bottom?

On the other hand, the previous price being more than the one right now would imply the coin has realized some loss.

When the SOPR is greater than one, it means the overall Bitcoin market is harvesting some profits at the moment. On the contrary, a value less than that implies loss realization is going on among BTC investors right now.

“Long-term holder” group includes all BTC investors that held their coins for at least 155 days before selling or moving them. The below chart shows the trend in the 14-day MA SOPR specifically for these LTHs:

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR

The value of the metric seems to have been going down recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the quant has marked all the relevant points of trend for the 14-day MA Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR.

It seems like the major bottoms in the history of the crypto were formed whenever the indicator’s value sank to a value of around 0.48 (denoted by the green line in the chart).

Related Reading | $15k Possible Bottom For Bitcoin? “Delta Cap” Says So

This kind of value occurs when LTHs go into deep capitulation. Since this is the BTC cohort least likely to sell at any point, large loss realization from them can signal that the bear bottom is coming near.

Currently, the indicator is also below 1, but it still has a value of about 0.62, a bit higher than the historical bottom zone. This would suggest that while Bitcoin may be heading towards a bottom, it’s not quite there yet.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.4k, down 9% in the past week. The below chart shows the trend in the value of the crypto over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the price of the coin has been moving sideways over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Brent Jones on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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