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Breaking News: Dogecoin (DOGE) Soars 8%, But An Uptick In This Metric Suggests A Pullback
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Breaking News: Dogecoin (DOGE) Soars 8%, But An Uptick In This Metric Suggests A Pullback
bitcoin crypto winter

Can Bitcoin Bring An End To Crypto Winter? | BTCUSD Analysis October 24, 2022

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
3 months ago
in Bitcoin
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we use the Fisher Transform and other tools to see how close Bitcoin is to putting an end to crypto winter.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD): October 24, 2022 Crypto Winter

Bitcoin continues to be boring, but the theme of this video is all about what happens when the notoriously volatile cryptocurrency gets dull. All downside and no rallies makes Bitcoin a dull boy.

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Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance To Regain Control Over Crypto? | BTC.D Analysis October 20, 2022

“Here’s Johnny:” What Happens When Bitcoin Becomes A Dull Boy

The Bollinger Bands are getting even tighter, showing that explosiveness is coming soon enough and this ongoing lull is just the calm before the storm. Daily Bollinger Band Width is now at the lowest point since October 2020 right before the bull breakout in 2020. Prior to that, the bands got that tight just ahead of the collapse to the bear market bottom in 2018.

On weekly timeframes, Bollinger Band Width is the tightest since the November 2018 breakdown, where Bitcoin dropped another 50% to its eventual bottom. All instances before that when the bands got this tight led to an enormous rally.

The monthly timeframe shows a very unusual phenomenon. The Bollinger Bands are actually now expanding after being some of their tightest ever. Rising after such a lull in volatility has in the past always triggered a trendmous bull run. Is the third time the charm?

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BTCUSD_2022-10-24_14-42-45

The Bollinger Bands are some of the tightest ever | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Is The Final Wave In Ethereum Up Next? | ETHUSD Analysis October 19, 2022

Why We Could Have Several More Weeks Of Crypto Winter

After this weekend’s weekly close, Bitcoin bulls have now closed three full weeks with a confirmed bullish crossover on the LMACD. Compared to the 2018 bear market bottom, we would only be a week or so away from making a larger move upward.

However, a comparison with the 2015 bear market bottom shows that although new lows might not arrive, there could be twice as long to wait before the bottom is confirmed as in and the range is left behind.

Other possible signals on weekly timeframes that could suggest we’ve seen the bottom already, is that Heiken Ashi candles are starting to turn green. 

BTCUSD_2022-10-24_14-46-03

How much longer will crypto winter last? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Action Falls Flat | BTCUSD Analysis October 18, 2022

Cyclical Timing Tools Suggest Spring Is Almost Here

The two-week Fisher Transform has also started to flip bullish (pictured right). But it will take another 14 days to confirm the signal. The Fisher Transform is used to find major turning points in markets, but works best on the highest timeframes. 

Moving to the monthly timeframe (pictured left), we can see that even here the Fisher has very little room left and if Bitcoin hands around here for another week or so, the monthly should begin to flatten, signaling a possible turnaround in price action. The Fisher Transform is based on a standard deviation formula, and with Bitcoin monthly at a -3.0 standard deviation, there is only a limited 0.1% chance the bear market will continue.

BTCUSD_2022-10-24_14-40-02

Will the Fisher flip and confirm the bottom? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbtxbtusd
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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