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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market
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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market

Bitcoin Bear Market Monthly Momentum Reaches Worst On Record

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin bear market

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For many Bitcoin investors who lived it, this crypto winter feels more painful than the 2018 bear market, despite making a shallower fall from peak to through. From a monthly momentum perspective, the bearish trend is now the strongest on record. Let’s take a look at what this means and where the market is at by comparison.

Log MACD Points To Worst Crypto Winter In History

As a speculative asset class, cryptocurrencies are volatile – wildly driven by speculation and polar opposite ends of greed and fear. There is no denying the current market is some of the most fearful since Bitcoin’s inception. It was born in wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the top cryptocurrency is now facing its first potential recession.

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Previous monetary policy allowed the asset class to flourish and grow, while the current policy has caused prices to contract significantly in short order. The result, is quite possibly the worst bear market in Bitcoin’s history, according to the LMACD.

BTCUSD_2022-12-19_14-43-19

Monthly bearish momentum is the strongest ever | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

LMACD is the logarithmic version of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator. The original tool was created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, while this version is best used to compare historical momentum.

When viewing the monthly LMACD for BTCUSD, the dashed zero line shows that in 2018, Bitcoin never even made it into bear territory. During this bear market, the MACD line in blue is also at the lowest point ever historically. The signal line in orange has never moved below the zero line, and could very well do so in this cycle.

Has The Bitcoin Bull Trend Officially Ended?

According to the Average Directional Index and each Direction Movement Indicator, bears are stronger than ever before, and have had the upper hand in crypto for the longest stretch ever.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Elliott Wave Theory Suggests Is Next For BTC

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Falling below a reading of 20 suggests the end of a trend, potentially indicating that the trend that started in 2015 is only now truly concluding. Rising back above a reading of 20 after falling below it, should help confirm a new bullish trend.

BTCUSD_2022-12-19_14-53-08

The bull trend has ended, but will a new one begin? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Although the ADX shows the bull trend never quite concluded in 2018, the weaker trend strength overall explains why the returns stemming from the 2018 bottom, weren’t anywhere near the same as the rally from the 2015 bottom, which had significant strength at its back.

With the bullish trend fizzling out, when bulls regain control and a new trend blossoms, it could be far more sustainable than what we have witnessed the last several years in crypto.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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