On August 14, Kevin Kelly, Co-founder of prominent crypto research firm Delphi Digital provided some interesting insights on Bitcoin and the crypto market in general. According to Kelly, the crypto market moves in consistent cycles, and we are currently in the initial stages of a new cycle based on market evidence.
Using the premier cryptocurrency as a benchmark, Kelly states a crypto cycle usually begins with Bitcoin attaining a new all-time high (ATH) value, followed by an 80% loss in the next year. Thereafter, BTC would experience a market recovery over two years before embarking on a bullish run to attain a new ATH.
The Interplay Between The Crypto Cycle And Macroeconomic Signals
Based on Kelly’s analysis, a typical crypto cycle occurs within four years, and its events are triggered by some factors in the bigger macro business cycle.
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The analyst noted that, for example, Bitcoin usually attains new price peaks at the same period as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index – an economic indicator that tracks the manufacturing sector’s health in the United States.
He said:
BTC price peaks occur around the same time the ISM shows signs of topping out. Active addresses, total transaction volumes, total fees – they all peaked alongside tops in the ISM too. As the business cycle shows signs of recovery, so too does network activity levels…
Due to this similarity in market movement, Kevin notes that turning moments in a typical business cycle have proven to be a favorable period to increase one’s exposure to risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Source: Delphi Digital
Bitcoin Poised To Attain New ATH By Q4 2024, Kelly Says
Interestingly, Kevin Kelly stated in his analysis that the ISM is currently heading toward the end of a two-year downtrend, indicating that BTC’s prices may soon start surging in the coming months.
To back his long-term bullish price prediction, Kelly highlights several other factors, including the Bitcoin Halving event coming up in April 2024.
The Delphi Digital Co-founder stated that the last two Bitcoin halvings had occurred 18 months after BTC’s price tanked and 7 months before rallying to a new ATH.
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Based on this historical data, BTC could well attain a new ATH by Q4 2024. However, as with all predictions, Kelly stated that are certain risk factors involved.
Firstly, he predicted that the BTC market is likely to soon witness a modest selling pressure or price consolidation, especially following the market’s strong recovery in the last 9 months.
In addition, he also highlighted the possibility of the business cycle presenting a false bearish end – as seen in March 2020 – or not reaching its bearish end as soon as predicted.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading around $29,333.89, with a 0.12% decline on the last day. However, the token’s daily trading volume is up by 26.38% and is valued at $12.2 billion
BTC trading at $29,322 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSD chart on Tradingview.com