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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Pre-Halving Rally: Bitcoin Just Bounced From Stock-to-Flow Baseline

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
5 years ago
3 mins read

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Since the start of 2020, talk of the upcoming Bitcoin halving has caused the first-ever cryptocurrency and the rest of the crypto market to skyrocket out of control.

It’s only this past week where a pullback occurred, caused by coronavirus-related market-wide panic. But despite the selloff, Bitcoin remains bullish, bouncing off the stock-to-flow baseline that suggests the asset’s value will rise exponentially after the halving this May.

Bitcoin’s Halving Is on the Horizon

There are few narratives that surround Bitcoin that have as loud of an echo chamber as the upcoming halving scheduled for this coming May 2020.

The crypto market has been anxiously awaiting the halving since the crypto market downtrend first began, as it is expected that the reduction in Bitcoin supply caused by the halving, will cause an imbalance of supply and demand that causes prices to surge.

Related Reading | Bitcoin To Explode By 80% Before Halving According to Past Cycle Comparison 

Each pre-coded halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, hence the appropriate name of the event.

Because much of Bitcoin’s value is based on its digital scarcity, the event is especially notable.

It’s so notable, that a stock-to-flow model has been developed to track Bitcoin’s price progression based on that scarcity.

This model is highly cited throughout the crypto industry and even in mainstream finance, and points to Bitcoin reaching prices of $55,000 following the halving.

First-Ever Cryptocurrency Bounces From Stock-to-Flow Baseline

The model includes a 10-day and one-year baseline moving average, along with another moving average depicting the difference in actual price versus what the stock-to-flow model projects.

According to that projection, Bitcoin just bounced perfectly at the 365-day baseline.

When in doubt, zoom out. #Bitcoin

A few weeks before every halving, #Bitcoin touched the #s2f model price. This time it is no different.

S2F 10D: $9.303
S2F 365D: $8.317
Average: $8.810

Current Price: $8.811

Chart:@digitalikNet
Model:@100trillionUSD pic.twitter.com/r2tRvcQZLh

— CryptoKea (@CryptoKea) February 27, 2020

During the two previous Bitcoin bear and bull cycle, the crypto asset did the same just ahead of the halving, before going on a monster rally.

Just ahead of the halving, that monster rally was sold back down to the same baseline, where it bounced yet again.

However, the last bounce was the final major dip before Bitcoin took off into a full-blown bull market.

This time may be different, though. Bitcoin now has stiff competition from the rest of the altcoin market, and the greater financial market is in turmoil following fears over a possible pandemic, impending war, and a total global economic meltdown.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Halving Overhyped: Previous Cycle Led to Another 6-Month Crypto Winter

Although the asset was designed to replace overextended fiat currencies in the face of an economic recession, the high-risk speculative asset may be too young at this phase in time to serve that ultimate goal.

A collapse of the monetary system could create too much fear for investors to consider the asset class, even with a catalyst like the halving ahead.

With so much at stake at this current time in crypto, Bitcoin’s fate currently hangs in the balance.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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