Hannah Phung, a lead analyst at on-chain analytics platform SpotOnChain, recently gave her opinion on the impact that Bitcoin Halving could have on the flaghsip crypto’s price. This adds to the ongoing debate on whether or not the Halving event could cause Bitcoin’s price to rise to $100,000.
Bitcoin’s Price Surge Might Not Come Immediately
Phung mentioned during an interview with BeInCrypto that Bitcoin’s price tends to increase around 6 to 12 months after the Halving and not immediately. This is evident from the past Halving events, as Bitcoin’s significant price gains came about one year after the Halving had occurred. After the first Halving on November 28, 2021, Bitcoin saw a price increase of over 8,000% one year after the event.
Source: Milk Road
Meanwhile, BTC saw a price increase of 284% and 559% one year after the second and third Halving events, which took place on July 9, 2016, and May 11, 2020, respectively. Phung further noted that Bitcoin’s price gains come from the reduction in Bitcoin miners’ supply, which helps increase scarcity and drive up its price, especially when demand is stable.
In February, NewsBTC reported that Bitcoin’s demand was far outpacing the miners’ supply. This led to several crypto analysts making bullish predictions that Bitcoin’s price could increase exponentially when miners’ rewards are further cut in half later this month. One such analyst was MacronautBTC, who raised the possibility of Bitcoin rising to $237,000.
This Bitcoin Halving Could Be Different
Despite the crypto market being known to follow historical patterns, Phung emphasized that the market can also be unpredictable, opening the possibility of this Halving being different from past ones. Moreover, this cycle has already proven different, considering that for the first time, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high (ATH) before the Halving.
Furthermore, the analyst acknowledged that the Bitcoin market is “much larger and more established compared to earlier halvings.” However, Phung still expects a price increase after the halving, although she admitted that the exact timing is uncertain, meaning it could be earlier or even later than usual.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also echoed a similar sentiment about how things could be different this cycle when he shared his analysis of the five phases of the Bitcoin Halving. Specifically, he stated that the Re-accumulation phase “may not last very long before additional uptrend continuation” since this is the first time the Re-accumulation range will be around a new ATH.
Market Sentiment Could Determine Bitcoin’s Price Post-Halving
Phung also elaborated on how the market sentiment after the halving could provide insights into Bitcoin’s future trajectory. She predicts that crypto investors will likely be bullish once the halving takes place, considering the significance of the event on Bitcoin’s supply.
However, once the excitement about the halving wears off, several metrics, such as price charts, trading volume, social media discussions, and on-chain data like active addresses or exchange supply, will need to be analyzed to determine whether or not investors are still bullish.
Meanwhile, Phung suggested that the price surge that occurs immediately after the Bitcoin halving may not be shortlived this time around since more institutional investors are now involved and have helped create a “more mature market.”
BTC price rises to $70,700 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com