Rockefeller International’s Managing Director and Chairman, Ruchir Sharma, argues that Bitcoin (BTC) is really a brilliant concept. One that has been destroyed by excessive speculative fervor and easy access to cheap capital.
Bitcoin Rebound Is A Matter Of Time
Sharma, a New York Times bestselling author and former emerging markets investor at Morgan Stanley (MS), predicted that bitcoin could experience a comeback similar to that of Amazon. Amazon’s value fell by about 90% during the early 2000s dot-com collapse but increased by more than 300 times over the course of the following 20+ years.
Although Sharma agrees that there may be more turbulence for bitcoin and the larger world of digital assets over the next months, this may also serve to remove weak players from the market. Some claim that has already occurred.
According to him, Bitcoin is still “caught up in this speculative mania,” and is still indicating a partial worldwide collapse. He brought up the Amazon incident again, noting that it took the company some time to recover. The shares of the online store needed some time to match and surpass its frothy 1999 level.
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The early 2000s dot-com bust led to a huge decline in the value of Amazon’s shares. However, during the course of the following 20 years, the value of the shares was able to increase by a factor of more than 300.
He noted:
“I’m not willing to call the [market] bottom as of yet on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The U.S. bear market regime, which is the driver of risk appetite around the world, is still very much in play.”
As a result of the continuous slide in U.S. stocks, Sharma also forecasted severe drops in Bitcoin and other digital assets during the ensuing six months. He made the point that during bear markets, which continue for about a year, stocks frequently decline by 35%. During this bear market that has only been going on for less than a year, the S&P 500 has only fallen by 20%.
BTC/USD slides below $20k. Source: TradingView
Reliance On Greenback May Stop
Sharma is in favor of a monetary system that is not dominated by the US dollar. He said that although there hasn’t been a currency that can replace the dollar, bitcoin might be the solution.
“The dependence on the U.S. dollar, in general, cannot continue. There is a need for having another currency out there with some transactional need, which is a bit more stable in value. Three to five years from now, hopefully BTC will emerge as a more stable asset.”
Sharma mentioned the Federal Reserve’s moves as well, saying that he didn’t foresee the risk appetite opening up just yet.
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Featured image from iStock photos, charts from TradingView.com