Bitcoin has risen above $36,000 and is currently targeting $37,000 as Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have revived hopes that a Spot Bitcoin ETF could be approved this year. The analysts maintain their belief of a 90% chance that any of these funds get approved by January 2024.
An Approval Order “Could” Occur This November
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Seyffart highlighted a new research note that he and Balchunas had just worked on. From their research, they noted that there is a “brief window” that allows the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve all 12 Spot Bitcoin ETF applications at once.
This brief window (which opens up on November 9) will last for at least eight days, before which it is almost possible for the SEC to approve all applications at once until next year. The reason for their assertion is that the SEC cannot approve an application that is in the comment stage. It so happens that the comment stage of the last applications that the SEC delayed ends on November 8, which is why they highlighted the window that starts from November 9.
As to why the window is only going to last for about eight days, the SEC is expected to decide on Hashdex and Franklin’s application on November 17, which could put both applicants in the comment stage. This is because it is expected that the SEC will opt to delay its decisions on those funds and ask the general public for comments on them.
Meanwhile, the analysts noted that this window only applies to the SEC approving all 12 applications at once. They explain that “theoretically,” the Commission could decide on the other applications from now until January 10, 2024, even if it chooses to delay its decision on Hashdex and Franklin’s application on November 17. Whatever happens, they still believe that there is a 90% chance that any of these funds get approved by January 10 next year.
A Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch Isn’t So Straightforward
When quizzed about how long it will take for these funds to launch after approval, Balchunas mentioned in an X post that he guessed that the “19b-4s” applications would be approved in the “not so distant future.” Then it will further take a while for the SEC to approve the “S-1s” after which it “would likely be days till launch.”
Seyffart also echoed similar sentiments as he stated that there are “two paths” that need to be completed before an ETF launches. One is the 19b-4 approval, after which the division of Corporation Finance at the SEC will still need to sign off on the S-1s. However, there is no sign that any of that has been done yet. As such, it could take “weeks or even months” between approval and launch.
Irrespective of that, Bitcoin has picked up on the possibility that Spot Bitcoin ETFs could be approved this month and has ridden on that wave to above $36,000. At the time of writing, the foremost cryptocurrency is trading at around $36,700, up over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC price above $36,600 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com