Bitcoin trends at the moment appear to be building bearish momentum as the asset failed to reclaim $9,000 over the weekend. The down trend seems to have resumed so analysts are now turning their attention to long term scenarios and four have emerged.
4 Bitcoin Price Scenarios
Aside from day traders seeking quick profits most people would get into Bitcoin for the long term potential. It is still a very high risk asset but if those risks pay off then the rewards could be immense. If BTC fulfills its destiny as a global currency of major store of wealth just holding a little bit of it could be life changing.
Trader and analyst Alex Krüger has been looking at possible scenarios for the future of Bitcoin prices and its role in the global financial system.
The first scenario is that BTC becomes a global reserve currency and hodlers today get immensely rich. This is pretty unlikely however due to its inherent lack of stability and the fact that there are a few whales that control an unhealthy proportion of the supply.
The second is on the same lines with Bitcoin scarcity continuing to push prices higher as it keeps outperforming with investors doing very well.
Thirdly is a scenario whereby BTC settles into a wide range as most commodities do after a few major rallies. While the fourth scenario is the nightmare one in which Bitcoin dumps back to near zero making the asset worthless.
Four long-term bitcoin scenarios
#1 Bitcoin becomes a global reserve currency. Current hodlers, all proven to be early, get immensely rich.
#2 Scarcity keeps price going up forever. Bitcoin continues to outperform. Investors do extraordinarily well.
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) November 16, 2019
The poll that followed resulted in 47% of over 4,500 respondents picking scenario three as the most likely in their opinion.
“Almost half are voting “settle into a wide range”. For those voting #3, time for some crystal-balling: where do you see $BTC most likely settling in?”
From this 45% saw a range above $100k as entirely plausible but it is likely to take a few years to get there.
Some of the respondents questioned the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin but it has been largely accepted that cryptographic algorithms would also evolve to keep up with the technological advances.
There were also a couple of bleak scenarios proposed such as the entire network becoming unsustainable.
“The future halvings are unsustainable as miners have to keep cashing out fiat to pay electricity bills to secure the network. When there’s no one else left to buy those bags it all ends. BTC has failed as a payments network and now there’s a hollow shell of “store of value”.”
This would be an extreme long term view as the supply approaches its maximum limit. The halvings happen every four years so this scenario could play out if pressure is put on power generation.
The general consensus of opinion though is bullish for the foreseeable future as Bitcoin continues on the path it began a decade ago.
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