As the US presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump’s odds on crypto betting platforms like Polymarket have surged, with analysts predicting significant implications for Bitcoin prices if he secures a second term in the Oval Office.
However, market expert Patrick H. warns that the current favorable conditions supporting Bitcoin’s rally toward a new record high may shift dramatically under Trump’s proposed fiscal policies for the coming year.
‘No Money Printing, No Gains’
In a recent analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter), Patrick H. posited that if Trump is re-elected and appoints Elon Musk as the head of the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the era of aggressive money printing could come to an end.
During a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, the Tesla CEO revealed plans for the DOGE initiative, suggesting it could reduce federal spending by at least $2 trillion.
Patrick H. argues that without continued money printing, there may be limited upward movement in Bitcoin prices. “No money printing, no price going up,” he stated.
The expert believes that the market may not be fully accounting for the ramifications of a Trump victory on both the cryptocurrency and stock market outlook for 2025.
Additionally, Patrick raised alarms about the Bank of Japan’s concerns regarding the US stock market if Trump implements these proposed policies. He warned that such changes could lead to an “economic shock” in 2025, further complicating the landscape for crypto prices.
The Bitcoin Rally And The Potential Impact For Altcoins
Delving into the current price dynamics, market analyst Miles Deutscher recently said that despite Bitcoin trading just below its all-time highs, the market feels “unusually quiet,” attributing the silence to a lack of retail investor participation, which he argues is crucial for driving momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
Deutscher pointed out that from October 2023 to March 2024, altcoins experienced significant rallies, with many rising four to five times from their lows. Coins in trending sectors, particularly those related to artificial intelligence and meme coins, even saw increases of 10 to 15 times during this period.
However, the analyst highlights that it wasn’t until February that retail interest re-emerged, as evidenced by metrics like Google Trends, app store rankings, and YouTube views.
Deutscher believes that this delay in retail engagement raises an important point: substantial price movements in cryptocurrencies often occur without immediate retail participation.
According to the analyst, the Pareto Principle applies here—80% of gains typically occur during the final 20% of a price movement. This means that retail investors tend to wait until significant upward momentum is already established before entering the market, suggesting further price gains in the months ahead.
In the current context, the recent altcoin rally has only lasted four weeks following a six-month downtrend. Deutscher recalls that in the previous cycle, it took five months for retail investors to notice the market’s recovery.
The analyst predicts a similar pattern may unfold again, although he asserts that the trust built during the March rally could shorten the time frame for renewed retail interest. Still, Deutscher emphasizes that Bitcoin breaking through its all-time highs would serve as powerful marketing for the entire cryptocurrency space.
Ultimately, the analysts explains that the resulting “wealth effect” from the current Bitcoin rally is likely to catalyze further increases in altcoin prices, creating a positive ripple effect throughout the market.
At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market has managed to regain the $72,000 level after a brief correction to $71,400 in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com