Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Nears Critical Death Cross: Will The Market See A Bearish Shift?

A recent analysis from a CryptoQuant analyst has raised concerns over Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Momentum. The MVRV ratio, a critical indicator in on-chain analysis, represents the ratio between Bitcoin’s realized and market values. It serves as a tool to assess whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.

By applying 30-day and 365-day moving averages (DMA) to this ratio, the analyst has observed a shift in market momentum, potentially signaling a major market move ahead.

A Bearish Shift On The Horizon?

In the latest assessment, the analyst under the name ‘Yonsei Dent’ highlights that Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average has sharply declined since reaching an all-time high in March 2024.

This decline has brought the 30 DMA dangerously close to crossing the 365 DMA; a situation often referred to as a “death cross” in technical analysis.

For context, a death cross is where a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average. In Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, a death cross would occur if the 30-day moving average (DMA) falls below the 365-day moving average (DMA).

Historically, such events have often preceded bearish market phases, making this a critical juncture for Bitcoin. Dent particularly noted:

In the previous cycle, after the MVRV momentum experienced a death cross, the market entered a full-blown bearish phase. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor whether the 30 DMA continues to decline. If the 30 DMA finds support at the 365 DMA and starts to rise again, it could signal a potential increase in BTC’s price.

Furthermore, Dent highlighted that the current Bitcoin MVRV ratio now ranges between 1.8 and 1.9, suggesting that the market value is nearly double the realized value, indicating that while the market is not yet under significant stress, caution is warranted.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

While Dent’s analysis of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio signals a critical juncture for Bitcoin, another renowned analyst, Javon Marks has recently set an ambitious target for Bitcoin based on its recent price action.

According to Marks, BTC still comes from a major Hidden Bull Divergence pattern. However, key levels remain at $67,559, which can be a precursor to a significant rally from BTC. Marks noted:

With a break + hold that target, $116,652 comes into play, and prices could set for an additional +72% climb to reach it, at an even greater speed than many think. All of Bitcoin’s recent chop after meeting $67,559 the first time may have only been preparation for this next phase into the $100,000s.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin still trades below $60,000 with a current trading price of $59,864, at the time of writing. According to crypto analyst Elja, the asset’s price keeps rejecting from the 4hr 200 EMA level. Should Bitcoin eventually surpass this level, we could see a surge to $64,000.

Featured image created witH DALL-E, Chart from TradingView