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Breaking News: Dogecoin (DOGE) Soars 8%, But An Uptick In This Metric Suggests A Pullback
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Breaking News: Dogecoin (DOGE) Soars 8%, But An Uptick In This Metric Suggests A Pullback
bitcoin yearly 14k

Why Bitcoin Price Could Be Destined To Retrace To $14K

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
2 years ago
in BTC
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Bitcoin price just saw the worst high timeframe correction in years, falling sharping by 50% and instilling fear across the market.

The turn in sentiment has everyone guessing where the now bearish cryptocurrency could fall to, but according to past cycles, it could get a lot worse before it gets better. Here’s more on why Bitcoin price could fall back toward $14K before the bear phase is over.

Bitcoin Yearly Candle Turns Bearish, But What About The Bull Market?

The arguments are all similar: if that was the top in Bitcoin this was the shortest and weakest bull market yet. The cryptocurrency would have fallen short of expectations by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

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That thought alone could result in some extremely bearish sentiment – even more negative than what’s going on across the market currently.

Related Reading | Bulls Beware: Bears Have Only Now Taken Control Over Bitcoin

There are calls for $20K BTC as the bottom, which would be another 50% from here. Another sizable drop seems unlikely given the potential the asset has, but as a “highly speculative” asset Bitcoin is extremely volatile.

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That volatility could result in a full retracement back to $14K.

bitcoin price yearly open retrace

The yearly candle never touched the previous support level | Source: BLX on TradingView.com

Why BTC Could Be Headed Back To $14K Per Coin This Year

In technical analysis, the highest timeframes always matter the most. Bitcoin was bullish on the daily, but the weekly MACD turning bearish signaled the top before the drop even began.

Monthly timeframes are even more dominant, and there’s a bearish evening star reversal pattern now confirmed on the monthly chart. Getting even more distant, things could be even more bearish.

The short yearly candle and large wick to only the upside is unlike any other annual Bitcoin price candle before it. The candle is currently bearish, but the yearly chart could say more.

In the past, the yearly candle to follow a breakout always comes back to nearly retest the previous yearly close that resulted in a bear market. It happened in the last two bull markets, but hasn’t during the current bull market. This time is clearly different so far, but will it stay that way?

The same chart on weekly timeframes makes the picture clear | Source: BLX on TradingView.com

If Bitcoin price were to retrace to the former yearly open before the bear market began, it would take the leading cryptocurrency by market cap back to $14K, which would be a roughly 78% retrace.

78% is significant for a number of reasons. For one, it falls short of the 80%+ parabolic curve retracement requirements, so it isn’t yet quite a bear market by BTC standards.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bear Market Comes Down To Pivotal June Close

78.6% is a key Fibonacci retracement level. Bitcoin price already retraced to the 50% mark, with 61.8% being the middle ground that also could act as a stopping point.

Finally, 78% would closely match the 2013 retrace that crypto investors should be hopeful repeats. If it does, the final leg up of the bull market could be mind-blowing before a more extend bear market takes place.

Featured image from iStock Photo, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbtxbtusd
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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